Becoming a lame duck president?

Challenges facing Biden after the congressional mid-term elections

On November 8, the United States Congress held mid-term elections to determine the makeup of the 118th Congress. 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 in the Senate were voted on. Although the Republicans were able to secure a tenuous majority in the House of Representatives, they will endeavour to challenge or even impeach the octogenarian president. Political pundits predict that the Republicans will make a relentless effort to incite dissatisfaction among the general population to boost their prospects of winning the 2024 presidential race.

Ukraine Conflict

Congress has already adopted budget bills totaling $66 billion to support Ukraine since Russia launched its special military operations in Ukraine. However, a Republican marginal victory in the House of Representatives could give the Republicans the power to stop providing additional aid to the embattled Ukrainian army. Furthermore, Republicans will try to divide the financial burden of supporting Ukraine’s war efforts amongst Washington’s NATO allies. Prior to the elections, Congressman Kevin McCarthy, who had been recommended as the next speaker of the Congress if the Republicans won, had proclaimed that Washington would not continue writing blank checks to Kyiv.

Rising tensions with China

Republicans have long claimed that Democrats are too lenient toward China; this was one of Trump’s primary criticisms of the Obama administration’s conciliatory approach toward China, mainly regarding Washington’s soft trade policy, during the 2016 election. The Republican triumph in the mid-term elections will force Biden to implement more confrontational economic measures against China. Reining in the Red Dragon in the South China Sea will reinforce Washington’s military position vis-à-vis the Chinese navy and counteract future Republican accusations during the 2024 presidential debates.

Relations with the Persian Gulf’s Arab littoral countries

Although both parties in Washington acknowledge the economic and strategic importance of ties with the Persian Gulf’s Arab countries, Democrats and Republicans are equally outraged by the oil-rich Arab monarchies’ cordial relations with Moscow since Washington deems the Kremlin as Europe’s formidable enemy.

With Republicans gaining more strength on Capitol Hill, a détente with America’s longtime Arab allies might be feasible. On the other hand, as legislators from both parties have advocated a more aggressive stance towards Riyadh in light of OPEC+’s recent agreement to limit oil output, a bipartisan deal was reached, according to which the United States would no longer supply US-made weapons to the Saudi regime.

Finally, it would be remiss not to admit that the Arab states and the US have committed to preserving the mutually beneficial aspects of their economic, political, and security relations while handling the political pressures that emerge from their conflicting interests. Hence, the mid-term elections in the United States will have little impact on how the US and Arab Middle Eastern governments deal jointly.

What will become of reviving the nuclear deal?

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has reiterated that the Congress, under the leadership of the Republicans, will block the Biden administration’s efforts to resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Therefore, reviving this agreement will be considerably more complicated than in the preceding two years.

Meanwhile, the US-backed riots in Iran and accusations of deploying Iranian-made UAVs to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine make a return to the 2015 accord less likely.

On the other hand, according to American experts, we may witness increased military tensions in the Persian Gulf as recent reports surface concerning Iran’s alleged attacks on US interests.

Israel-US relations

The parliamentary elections of the Zionist regime were held while a coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu won the majority of seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. Based on this premise, Netanyahu and his ultra-orthodox Jewish allies took over 64 seats in the Knesset. Since Netanyahu has better connections with the American Republican Party, he will try through Republican-led Congress to exert more pressure on American foreign policy. However, regardless of which party controls the White House or Congress, the strong Zionist lobbying groups are only too eager to attack any comments or measures aimed against Tel Aviv.