From Ally to Foe: Is Saudi Arabia Moving Away From the United Arab of Emirates?

When Mohammad bin Salman (abbreviated MBS), the Saudi flamboyant Crown Prince, noticed the Omani monarch was not wearing a mask upon his arrival at Neom Airport, he immediately removed his mask to demonstrate how cordially he receives the Omani king; who was making his first visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) since assuming the throne a year ago. The visit coincided with the completion of a 680-kilometre road between Oman and Saudi Arabia, which would enable the latter to bypass the UAE, which had previously functioned as a transit route between the KSA and Oman. These events have not escaped the notice of Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Zayed (MBZ), who is engaged in a clandestine struggle with his old ally MBS, generally regarded as MBZ’s protégé. According to observers, MBZ has allegedly supported MBS in his accession to power, and, as a consequence, the Saudi-Emirati relationship has been described in recent years as one of patronage. However, it has been reported that the ties between the two royal princes have soured and that the two leaders have recently become estranged, particularly over oil policy. When the Saudis proposed an additional eight-month extension of the OPEC PLUS output-cutting agreement, the Emiratis pushed back and asked to be excluded from the restrictions. Following that, the two countries imposed travel restrictions on their citizens, purportedly in an attempt to prevent a Coronavirus pandemic. The situation was exacerbated by Saudi Arabia’s campaign to compel multinational corporations to relocate their regional operations to the KSA. However, Emiratis regarded the move as a start of an offensive on Dubai’s position, the Middle-East’s paramount economic emporium and home to the regional headquarters of many multinational firms. According to some analysts, MBZ will undoubtedly take steps to rein in his former pupil and demonstrate the grave consequences of harming Dubai’s financial interests. In fact, Bin Zayed will attempt to persuade his Saudi counterpart that opposing him would be extremely expensive. MBS’ vulnerable dependence on the Emirates is so great that by antagonizing Abu Dhabi, he could jeopardize his political destiny. Bin Zayed may go even further in his efforts to punish Bin Salman by promoting himself to the White House as the primary player in bringing oil prices down from record highs, a significant point of contention that arose with the escalation of tensions between the two countries following the UAE’s attempt to evade its commitment to its output share.