Is Europe Ready for Trump?

Is Europe Ready for Trump?

By Amin Mahdavi



European countries should prepare themselves for a major event: the potential presidency of Donald Trump in the United States. European politicians are now seeking to enhance their relationships with the Republicans in order to ensure a constructive interaction with Trump if he does indeed become President.



Fear of Trump's return?

Europe experienced a challenging and stressful four-year period during the Trump era. This time led to Europe's distancing from America and common Western values, with Trump even considering Europe a more significant enemy than China. Through various rhetoric and policies, Trump attempted to shift the economic burden of covering some of the world's economic and political security costs onto Europe, achieving partial success. However, this success came with the redefinition of Europe in many instances. Now, Europe must brace itself for Trump's return.

Among the challenges that Europe is dealing with, an important issue is NATO and security. Europe understands that it is very vulnerable without the support of the United States and may not be able to withstand an all-out military invasion. Some European experts believe that purchasing F-35 fighters from the United States signifies hope for strategic cooperation and having the United States on their side. Additionally, Europe's other concern in the field of nuclear arsenals is that if America excludes Europe from its nuclear umbrella, they will face a significant challenge. On the other hand, Europe believes that the world today does not have the capacity for another nuclear competition, and if Europe withdraws from American support, they will have to rely on the French arsenal to define their nuclear position, which will be costly for Europe. Therefore, Europe must define a new military doctrine and increase its nuclear arsenal to fill this void. For Europe, this translates to heavy defense costs and significant challenges with competitors such as Russia and China, which will result in increased pressure on them.[1]

On the other hand, Europe is actively seeking to reduce its consumption of fossil fuels and has implemented numerous plans to address this issue, positioning itself as a global leader in this area. However, the success of Trump will undoubtedly pose a challenge for Europe, as his approaches and energy policies differ greatly from those of the Democrats.[2]

As a result, Europe is concerned about the implicationsof Trump's presidency and anticipates that his presence will present significant challenges. Nevertheless, Europe is now better prepared to navigate Trump's behavior and no longer views him as unpredictable as before.



Is Europe getting ready?

Considering the possibility of Trump's victory in the upcoming American elections, European countries appear to have adjusted their approach towards Republicans and Trump supporters. They are seeking to mitigate potential damage in the event of Trump's presidency. The recent theoretical vote by Europe in the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran may serve as a clear signal to Trump that Europe is willing to align with America. Additionally, Europe has taken a tough stance towards China, despite the potential harm it may cause, recognizing the importance of China for future security. This European approach, while not necessarily easy, aligns with the long-term interests of the European Union and sends a message to Trump that Europe is open to broader cooperation with the United States.[3]

It should also be taken into account that this could be costly for Europe. In order to get Trump's attention, they have to finance a part of NATO's military expenses and invest and buy more from America than other places. The world should pay attention to this. For Europe, these events represent their dependence on the United States, which is not very pleasant in the international system. In this period, with Trump in office, Europe may be considering a strategic separation from America more than before and freeing itself from the grip of America's captivity. This would be a heavy burden for them, but an independent Europe needs to be willing to pay a huge price. This issue can also affect other US allies, as they realize that the Trump administration prioritizes its own interests over those of its allies. These events may lead to a major change in the international system and the formation of a new structure, with a lesser presence of America.



[1] ecfr.eu



[2] dw.com



[3] politico.eu