National Interest: A second U.S. civil war is brewing

The National Interest, citing the rise of armed violence and "homegrown terrorism" in the United States, raises fears that a second civil war is brewing in the country.

The publication finds some similarities between the conditions in the period before the Civil War and now. Among these, the authors of the NI material refer to deep social contradictions, preservation of the distinct cultural stratification of the society and also the growth of the property difference between the social groups, which was brightly expressed on the background of the record inflation and fuel prices. The magazine warns the U.S. government of the danger of a national split, which could be led by members of radical circles in the United States.

“If – still a big ‘if’ – large-scale anti-government violence erupts from an initiating event, it is more likely to occur in loosely coordinated pockets of, say, hundreds of heavily armed and angry people led by one [individual] or a paramilitary group. It would be very dangerous if it were supported by some extremist national leaders,” writes author Nico Emak.

The core of the insurgency would be extremely well armed with standard military weapons and explosives, the piece reported. The likelihood of widespread violence is undeniable today. An assault on the Capitol by supporters of 45th U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan. 6, 2021 could prove to be a rehearsal for coordinated attacks on federal symbols and property, state capitols and more. If such violence erupts, these groups will need to be disarmed, if necessary, with the involvement of the military, NI writes. It concludes that while civil war is unlikely in the United States today, geographically dispersed, poorly coordinated paramilitary violence by far-right and radicalized social elements cannot be considered impossible.