Rockets, Guerilla Attacks, And Side Road Bombs; America’s Future In The Middle East

From
a heavy attack on its military base to Iran and China’s increasing influence in
the region, there will be unintended consequences for the U.S. in the coming
years

A year has gone
and General Qassem Soleimani’s assassination will continue to form the
geopolitical issue of the world and the Middle East in specific for the years
to come.

United States’
unlawful assassination of Gen. Soleimani Soleimani in Baghdad had two early
lessons for the west. 

First, despite
legitimately varying views on Iran’s political system’s favorability and
approval among its people, the exceptional, off-the-cut, and historical participation in
mourning of the top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander disclosed
just how the Iranian Public could react against and external threat: locked and
loaded and ready to act against any power undermining their integrity. 

Second, the US
has lost its last chance to defend its leadership position in international
affairs. Trump has reconfirmed one last time to the world that if among many
foreign policy options he can take the worst one, surely he will do.

The US has embarrassed
itself in three ways: A natural tendency to undermine the international norms,
enabling negative unplanned consequences to affect its interests through its
harmful adventures; unpredictability and unreliability; abnormal
decision-making.

The most
tangible result of Gen. Soleimani’s assassination could be the fulfillment of
his long-nurtured dream: Kicking the US and its allies out of the Middle East –
especially Iraq and Syria.

This probable
situation will be a dark and scary scenario for Israel and Persian
Gulf Arab dictators. Add Iran’s increasing detachment from the JCPOA and
its growing nuclear capabilities to this equation and it’s a fine reason for
Netanyahu and his allies to shriek and run in distress.

Right after
Gen. Soleimani’s assassination, IRGC forces launched rockets against the US Ayn
al Asad airbase in Iraq, But Tehran is reserving its potential next major
move for US allies in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel. 

Even
before their master plan even implemented possibly soon, Iran’s retaliation has
checked two key purposes: firstly, to prove that the US’ 

efforts to
deter the Islamic Republic through eliminating one of its chief commanders have
failed miserably; and secondly, to soothe the anguish of the people angry by
the loss of their national hero and a nation which demand an eye for an eye. 

It would be
ideal for Donald Trump and his administration if the story ended here and
everybody just forgot what he’s done but it is obvious that the Iranian
response is not concluded.

Iran’s major
retaliation and hard revenge may unfold for years through asymmetric, hybrid
warfare targeting US troops in the region, directly and indirectly through its
regional proxies like Hezbollah.

Tensions
between the US and Iraq, and inside Iraq is also reaching a billing point.
Sunni and Kurdish parties did not vote in Iraq’s parliament for the withdrawal
of US troops, obviously due to Trump’s pressure.

The Iraqis have
seen such a posture as a form of betrayal, undermining Iraq’s sovereignty, or
subservience to the US and its western allies.

Another future
scenario is that the US could simply decide to move its troops to Iraq’s
Kurdish region. This could be perceived by the Iraqi public as a treasons act
against their countries’ sovereignty.

The US may
change its position towards the independence of Iraq’s Kurdish region. This
move might be appreciated by some of the US allies in the region like Israel,
but it could also reignite the dangerous Arab-Kurdish civil war – a war that
will again endanger America’s position in the region.

In
the end, believing that an independent Kurdish region of Iraq may save the US
some time to escape the unintended consequences of its misdeeds in the region
is a dangerous miscalculation