Türkiye towards the vote, Erdogan at risk and the "earthquake variant"

Everything is ready for the political and presidential elections on Sunday 14 May in Turkey, in what many analysts consider the most difficult electoral round for the Turkish head of state and leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has been at the helm of the country for twenty years. Leader of the Islamist ruling party Akp, he should have no problem maintaining most of the seats, but there are some factors for which the conservative president, known for having centralized much of domestic and foreign policy in his hands, repressing dissent and minorities, would appear weakened: galloping inflation at 50% or perhaps more, and the so-called "earthquake variant".

The terrible earthquake last February, in addition to causing the death of about 50,000 people and creating millions of damages and displaced people, also struck the sultan's stronghold provinces. According to the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK), at least one million voters in those areas affected by the earthquake will not be able to vote due to displacement. The president considered an influential "mediator" between West and East, both in the war in Ukraine in reference to food and energy resources, and with the European Union on the issue of migrants, has the merit of having brought Turkey to the center of the geopolitical chessboard.

But this is not enough to silence his detractors. The opposition could after two decades attract the majority of voters: polls would give Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74-year-old leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), presidential candidate for the nation's six-party alliance coalition a very mixed front , composed of nationalists, liberals and social democrats. His party is the son of the historic political formation created by the founder of the Turkish Republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.