The Ukraine Crisis and Saudi Arabia's Geopolitical Realignment: Navigating Shifting Alliances

Ukraine, positioned as a crucial buffer zone between Russia and the West, has long held immense importance for the Kremlin. The country's inclination towards the West, expressed through its desire to join NATO, coupled with NATO's eastward encroachment, eventually compelled Russia to respond in 2014 with an extensive, tactically distinct, and forceful action. On February 21, 2022, Russia formally recognized the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, two self-proclaimed states in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, and swiftly deployed its troops to these breakaway regions. The subsequent day, the Council of the Russian Federation unanimously granted President Putin the authority to employ military force beyond Russia's borders. At approximately 05:00 a.m. (Eastern European Time) on February 24, Putin declared the commencement of a special military operation in eastern Ukraine, officially marking the onset of the Ukraine conflict.


By: H.Zaïm-Bashi



Russia's offensive against Ukraine has induced a strategic quandary among most Middle Eastern governments. Over the past decade, these governments have cultivated strong ties with Moscow, both as a response to Russia's reemergence as a major foreign power, exemplified by its military intervention in Syria, and to adapt to the geopolitical reality of a multipolar world where the United States and its European allies are no longer the guarantor of their security. Saudi Arabia, too, has fostered close relations with Russia in recent years. Consequently, the war in Ukraine has effectively altered Saudi Arabia's strategic stance in regional and global affairs. Thus, the crucial question arises: What impact has the Ukraine conflict had on Saudi Arabia's strategic orientations?

In order to address this query, it is imperative to examine the ramifications of the crisis on Saudi Arabia's energy security, maritime transportation, tourism sector, and food security.



Energy Security

Following the Ukraine conflict, the West's heightened demand for energy resources led Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest exporter of crude oil. As tensions escalated in Eastern Europe, there were expectations among US and European officials that Saudi Arabia, as a member of OPEC, would accelerate oil production and increase its capacity. However, the oil-rich Kingdom has displayed no inclination to increase oil supply. In fact, the war in Ukraine has provided Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf oil producers with an opportunity to demonstrate their indispensability to Europe and the United States.

Maritime Transportation

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has transformed the Black Sea into a volatile zone. As a semi-enclosed sea, the Black Sea's sole gateway to the global maritime transport network is through the Bosphorus Strait. Historical experiences of global conflicts suggest that the ongoing tensions in the Black Sea may extend to the Mediterranean and Red Sea as well, given Russia's military presence in Syria and its coasts.

The Red Sea holds a strategic position in Saudi Arabia's political and economic strategies. Hence, any threat to the Red Sea jeopardizes Saudi Arabia's interests, thereby intensifying its geopolitical focus on maritime issues.



Tourism

The escalation of the war may lead to a decline in Saudi income from the tourism industry, with the possibility of direct flights to popular Russian tourist destinations in the Middle East being canceled. Consequently, the tourism sector would suffer a significant blow.



Food Security

The Secretariat of Economic Affairs of the Union of Saudi Chambers of Commerce has conducted studies exploring the various dimensions of the Ukraine crisis and its implications for domestic and global economies. These studies emphasize the imperative of striving for food security by empowering private sector importers and producers to maintain strategic reserves of essential food commodities. The Union of Saudi Chambers of Commerce, based on the aforementioned report, also examines the crisis from different angles to identify potential opportunities for attracting global companies to Saudi Arabia's domestic markets in cooperation with Saudi investors. This approach underscores Riyadh’s efforts to prevent a crisis in food and other essential goods supply. Notably, Saudi Arabia's involvement in new strategic issues stemming from the Ukraine crisis has prompted the Kingdom to expand its ties with the Eastern bloc. While Saudi Arabia had already strengthened ties with China and Russia prior to the Ukraine conflict, these relationships have deepened significantly afterward. The United States, despite Biden's efforts, has essentially failed to fulfill previous promises of support for Riyadh, particularly in the Yemeni crisis. Following the Ukraine crisis and its ripple effects for Saudi Arabia, the Arab monarchy has effectively positioned itself as a bridge between the East and the West.

On one hand, the United States seeks dialogue with the Saudi authorities to seek an increase in oil output, while on the other hand, Russia seeks Saudi Arabia's support to boost oil prices.

The Kingdom increasingly views the world through the lens of "Vision 2030," a comprehensive strategy aimed at diversifying the post-oil economic sector. To achieve the goals outlined in this strategy, Saudi Arabia relies on selling oil at higher prices to finance the non-oil sectors until they reach sustainability. In this regard, Riyadh has cooperated with Moscow to maintain oil price stability. In order to outpace competitors in attracting tourism, talent, investment, and trade, Saudi Arabia's coffers must be filled with lucrative oil prices.

This perspective explains the Kingdom's shift from a hawkish to a conciliatory approach, leading to reconciliation with former adversaries such as Turkey and Iran. Geographically distant regions, including Russia's war zone in Ukraine, the rise of China, or the potential future attack on Taiwan, pose minimal threats to Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," as the potential hostilities in Ukraine or Taiwan remain an issue of US hegemony rather than one of immediate concern to Saudi Arabia.

Today, it appears that Saudi Arabia's chosen strategy thus far, encompassing economic, political, and security objectives, is the most effective means to achieve its goals. Riyadh has also sought to avoid complete reliance on the West, instead cooperating with the East to bolster its defense capabilities. This cooperation has intensified following the lessons learned from the Ukraine and Yemen conflicts.